MR N’s #NFL NFC South 2015 Preview‏ #nflthoughts #nflpreseason

NFC South

New Orleans Saints – Last year I looked at the Saints, looked at their schedule and anointed them a 13-3, a first round bye, and then just a loss to one of the other top NFC teams.  They stunk out the joint and made that one of my least accurate predictions.  This year they have changed up the entire game plan and have Brees now using a variety of weapons while they concentrate on a running attack that will eat the clock and keep their D fresh.  Their O line has been improved some.  The Special teams needs help.  The D can’t be worse than last year unless they finish 32.  The schemes will work if there is nominal growth on the both the D line and at linebacker and secondary.  Still it isn’t all that bad as they only need to keep the opposition down a little while their team scores a lot.  The schedule is another gimme and they could almost run the table again.  I think if all goes well they will be 13-3 and have a first round playoff bye and be defeated in the division round.  If the D tanks then 6-10 is not out of the question.  I will drink the Kool-Aid once more and say 12-4 and they win the division and get a bye as the #2 seed in the NFC.

Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are now thought to be at a crossroads with the loss of Kelvin Benjamin in the preseason.  I say thee nay.  I think Caaaaaaam has a new O line anchor, a dedicated one man RB with a good rookie Sub, a super TE, and a cadre of receivers who will get the job done.  Add to that a fantastic D that has a great front 7 and a secondary that is coming on.  They have solid special teams and they have a pretty ridiculously easy schedule as a ‘reward’ for winning the division and a playoff game (how did that happen?).  I see them going 4-0 into their bye and then cruising through the remainder and not really getting a challenge.  If all goes beyond their dreams, they could be 12-4.  If the secondary falters and the receivers aren’t there then 9-7 is possible.  I think the ease of schedule helps settle them to an 11-5 and that may just be the division title.

Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons had the worst defense last year and they have made wholesale changes to stop that.  It may not come as fast as they hope.  Dan Quinn the new HC is a maven and Vic Beasley will add a pass rush but they need serious help at the secondary and are hoping a 2nd round character gamble will ignite an otherwise ordinary unit.  Matt Ryan is getting older but can still sling it.  Julio Jones can be elite at WR if he can be healthy.  Two kids are in the mix for RB and I don’t know doesn’t just play third base he plays TE for Atlanta.  The Schedule is tough pre-bye and better after.  If they have issues on D they could lose their first 5 to start.  I think if they struggle they might be 6-10.  If it all clicks *someone on ESPN radio says Superbowl lol* then 9-7 is possible.  I think it is rebuild and 7-9.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are starting from scratch with a new QB, 2 new Oline and a fresh start altogether.  Winston may be a superstar once he gets his feet under him.  The O line is working on growing together.  He has two great WR, a hopeful TE and depth at RB. The D is what it was but for the steal of the draft with their 4th round MLB Kwon Alexander, who is now captaining the D.  The special teams are ok but need kick return production to come out of the draft too.  The schedule is ok but this team is a work in progress.  If the team gets it together in the first 4 games they could have a spectacular 8-8 season.  If the struggles go past mid-season then 4-12 is possible.  I think they will be proud to go 6-10 after the 2-14 and be ready to be heard from in 2016.

MR N the BEARS Fan


MR N’s #NFL NFC East Preview 2015‏ #nflpreseason #nflthoughts

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys had stuck to a plan to get where they were last year.  Using a great O line to power a running game took pressure off Romo to win it himself.  Now Murray fled via free agency and they have replaced him potentially with a bunch of never was’ and has been’s.  They have a very aged and fragile Tony Romo and 3 good WR and an aged but talented TE.  The O line is great.  The D needs a pass rush and they turned to a violent court convicted offender and a guy who used drugs at the combine to help.  They lost one of their not very good starting CB to injury which makes what was not great less than that.  With all that and their likelihood to turn to Romo to pass for every first down again I don’t see much for this team.  A pretty easy schedule awaits them.  I don’t see a potential high mark or even a low mark.  They will be 10-6 and that may win the division or it may not.

Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles are Chip Kelly’s team from top to bottom now with him in full control.  He is building a team exactly how he wants one and he is jettisoning great talent for his own reasons.  All will be well if there is a Super Bowl in the next couple of years in Philly.  Otherwise, the axe will invariably fall and Kelly will be back in the Pac-74.  They have oft injured Sam Bradford et al at QB, potentially overused and nearly done DeMarco Murray at RB and a slew of receivers who are long on hope and short on proven ability.  The O line is pretty good.  They have decent Special teams but need better return effort.  The D has issues all over and isn’t built to sustain production when the offense flits on and off the field with such high speed.  It will be a long year again with a team that can outscore some and not stop many.  If all goes well the team will win 11 and challenge for the division title.  If the O gets hurt then the team could be 7-9.  I think another 9-7 and likely out of the playoffs.

New York Giants – The G-men have won two of the last 10 Super Bowls.  Interestingly enough there are precious few players remaining from the glory days beyond Eli and the long snapper.  The Giants had severe issues with O line last year and used their first pick to add Ereck Flowers and he should stop the revolving door to Eli.  The NYG offense is superb with Eli, workable running game, Superstar ODB plus other WR and a good TE all protected by a better line.  The D has a new Coordinator and Spagnuolo just needs one star to make it work – he has JPP – until JPP blew most of his hand off.  There are issues on DE/LB/S/CB.  They have good special teams but need better returners.  The Schedule is pretty easy but this team may not have D.  If the D can make some strides, this team could be 10-6.  If they O are held back by pre-eminent D’s then this team may be 7-9.  I think they will be 9-7 and probably outside looking in.

Washington Redskins – Give credit to Washington for sticking with a plan and not just tossing out RGIII and trying to re-invent the egg again.  So it is RGIII with a revamped O line (they were horrid last year) and that is to give RGIII health insurance and help Alfred Morris run like he used to.  So far in the preseason the benefits haven’t been seen.  This new line, with 1st round pick Scherff on the right side, may grow together and the Skins must hope it’s sooner rather than later.  The D was beyond horrible last year (again) and they have added lots of people in the hopes that new is better.  It has to be better as that D really can’t be worse.  The Redskins have a plan and if they can keep on it they will get better for the future but short term eek.  I think if everything comes together for them they might approach 8-8.  I just don’t see it so I think 5-11 and hope they keep on keeping on because the future will get brighter.

As always I love any thoughts, comments, arguments or agreements!  NFC South is next, then NFC West then…the highly anticipated…Preseason Power Poll

MR N the BEARS Fan

MR N’s #NFL AFC West Preview 2015 #nflpreseason #nflthoughts


Denver Broncos – The Broncos have kind of slid backwards ever since they got smoked by Seattle way back (2013?) and they changed regimes (kind of as the Elway regime continues) and now it’s Kubiak’s way.  The Broncs have brought in a staff of people who either all played, coached or assisted with Denver at one time or another.  Kubiak is putting in his standard run first offense, which could allow Peyton to last a little longer if it isn’t all on him. This team will be all about Manning and the offense.  They have a shot of good D potential and their special teams are ok.  They have some issues at O line, Demaryius Thomas isn’t happy to have been franchised, and they have a new TE now who won’t catch 100 plus passes this year.  The team should have a strong pass rush and good D line presence and good secondary.  If everything went perfectly the Broncos could be 14-2 and home field throughout.  If the new offense doesn’t click and Peyton is still old then 10-6 is not out of the question.  I think the end result is likely 12-4 and a division title.

Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs didn’t have a TD from a WR last year but I think Maclin will get at least a few this year.  Alex Smith is durable and consistent but not flashy.  Charles is the star of this team.  Kelce could be huge at TE if he can stay healthy.  The O line has major, major issues.  The D has a few stars and some solid contributors and will keep this team in most games.  The Schedule starts out a bit harsh and this team could lose their first 3 and not be really their fault.  If the Chiefs O is on point with a good D this team could win 11 and sneak one of the precious wild card spots.  If the O line allows close to 50 sacks again and there are health issues then they might win only 9.  I think 10-6 and the chance at the post season will most likely come down to who wins the game against Buffalo.

San Diego Chargers – The Chargers have been close for 5 years and they will be close again.  They also are close to moving to LA and that may yet come too if San Diego won’t pony up some interest in replacing old Qualcomm.  They inked Rivers to a huge extension, keeping their Vet QB around long past his viability.  The draft of Gordon gives them a great up at RB, Gates suspended 4 games may yet be able to get some production in the other 12 games.  Their top 5 WR do not scare anyone.  The O line is ok.  The D needs to find a consistent pass rush and their secondary needs to be felt each day.  The Special teams needs to get better on kick returns.  The schedule is a mirror of last year when SD did great early and terrible after bye.  If the Chargers are to succeed they have to beat KC and Denver and if they do then they could be 11-5. If Oakland improves too quick SD might be 7-9.  This year I see a decent 6-3 and all sorts of hopes for the post season and then a hard post bye sked will send them 3-4 and they go 9-7 and out of the playoffs again.

Oakland Raiders – The Raiders have been a long time down and on the positive things are finally looking up.  I don’t see then reaching the promised land before 2016 as this is a work in progress.  They have a great new coach in Del Rio and a GM who has a plan and an owner who is letting the plan work.  They have a great young triplet group with Carr, Murray and Cooper.  These three will eventually put up numbers ala Aikman/Smith/Irvin.  The added a solid TE in the draft.  They really need the O line to improve and that may be the flaw in the offense growth this year.  The D is led by Khalil Mack the superstar LB.  They need to generate a pass rush to match their good rush D.  That rush will aid the aged parts and untested parts of their secondary.  The Raiders need to add Oline and secondary next year in Free Agency and the draft.  This year they will be fun to watch and the Silver and Black will look good at times.  The schedule isn’t bad but this team has holes that can be picked on the NFL elite teams.  If they do everything right and get some miracle performances they could be 10-6. If the secondary is bad they might be 6-10.  I think they will be a tough to play 7-9 and watch them in 2016.

There it is, as always I enjoy every thought, comment, argument or agreement.

MR N the BEARS Fan

MR N’s #NFL AFC South 2015 Preview‏ #football #NFLPreseason


Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have been moving slowly forward each year, advancing one further round and then losing badly to New England.  This may be Super Bowl or bust for Indy.  They have their own personal dragon to slay and it is the Pats.  They get a shot in October to take them down.  The Colts have Andrew Luck, arguably the finest QB in the game not named Russell Wilson, and strong depth and talent at RB, WR and TE.  The O line isn’t spectacular but they get the job done.  The Special teams are spectacular and that leaves the D.  The D is what has killed their playoff hopes each and every year.  They need Mathis to be healthy and their new additions, like Trent Cole, to gel and their secondary to cover and their linebackers to do a better job of stopping the run.  They have an easy schedule.  If all the defense ifs come true this team could be 14-2 and home field throughout the playoffs and on the way to Super Bowl 50.  If they can’t beat New England and the D falters badly they might even be 11-5 and just barely win the division.  I think 12-4, win the division and face potentially another January showdown in New England.  Can Indy get over the hump this year?  I am not 100% sure than can.

Houston Texans – The Texans are a team that rode a powerful D to a good but not good enough 9-7 record last year.  They have been rewarded with a pretty easy schedule but more on that later.  The Texans are still looking for a QB and it will be either Mallet or Hoyer.  Coach O’Brien knows them both well and the best one will lead the squad.  They have fragile Arian Foster but excellent insurance in Alfred Blue.  They have new #1 WR Hopkins and Cecil Shorts is a good pickup at #2.  The Tight End is a black hole and needs to accomplish something, or anything, or something.  The D is a force.  JJ Watt is the best player in the NFL and his game will be enhanced by veteran Vince Wilfork who will be a force in the middle all the while tutoring young Nix.  If, and it’s a huge IF, Clowney can be healthy and the force he was thought he would be then this D will be lights out.  They have decent LB and Safety and solid Corners.  To me the whole success or failure of the season will come down to a Thursday night when they host the Indianapolis Colts in Houston on CBS.  Houston has to find a way to slay the dragon or they will be perennially the #2 in their division.  If they can beat Indy at home and roll through their schedule, they could be 12-4 and win the division.  If they can’t beat Indy and Clowney is a bust and QB doesn’t work then they could be 9-7.  I think it will be almost a great year and they will go 11-5.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Well the Jags have nowhere to go but up so they land a franchise Linebacker in the draft who will make their D a real force and he promptly blows out his knee and is done for the year.  So is any shot the D had of making strides in 2015.  The owner wants more out of his GM and Head Coach than 3 wins. He will be disappointed and perhaps O-line Coach Doug Marrone will have another coaching gig he can quit on in 2016.  This team revolves around franchise QB Blake Bortles.  They have good RB and good WR and if their new TE formerly Denver Orange Julius is healthy he could be a difference maker.  The special teams are good.  The D has issues on the line, at linebacker and even in the secondary.  If the D can get some traction and the O grows then this team could be an amazing 8-8. I just don’t see it.  The schedule isn’t a killer to most teams but it is to this one.  I see a repeat 3-13 and then a new HC and GM in 2016 and watch them improve with Fowler jr. on D then. Go London Jaguars in 2016!

Tennessee Titans – The Titans landed Mariota and he will eventually turn this team around.  They have a better line but still some weaknesses there, they have issues at WR, a decent TE and could have a running attack if Sankey can improve on his rookie campaign while Cobb gets off to a quick start in the NFL.  The D will have Dick LeBeau overlooking them but they need a lot of help at both D line and Linebacker.  The Corners and Safeties are a work in progress.  The Special teams are decent.  This team is probably going to be leaps and bounds better in 2016 but right now, I don’t actually see a win on their schedule.  Their ‘easiest’ game is the Jets but they have to go to New York to play it.  They host Buffalo and Miami but those teams are better than this one.  I fear the Coach and GM will be fired with a 2-14 repeat or worse.  That is a shame as give them a growing year and watch this team be ready to contend in 2016.  Worse case is 0-16, best case is maybe 5-11.  I will be generous and say 2-14 again.  Ugh.

There it is, as always I enjoy any thoughts, comments, arguments or agreements!

MR N’s #NFL NFC North 2015 Preseason Preview‏ #nflthoughts #nflnetwork

NFC north

Green Bay Packers – The first thing I wonder is how does a team that continually drafts late every round build a team of superstars on offense?  How does every other team miss on the Cobbs/Nelsons/Lacys/Rodgers etc?  The Pack are loaded on Offense with every player coming back.  The D has had changes, especially in the back end, but they drafted to meet those needs.  The Pack just needs the D to be mid talented (which they are) and their O to be virtually unstoppable and watch the results pore in.  They have a tough schedule but like the Ravens, they know how to give as good as they get.  If they get inspired D they could win 12 games.  If they D gets pushed about they might only win 10.  I split the difference.  This team goes 11-5 and is at least one of the top 3 in the NFC with a shot at Super Bowl 50.

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings finally have a franchise QB for the first time in recent memory and an all pro child beater (not to mention Running back) plus depth of varying degrees of talent at WR and TE.  The Vikes O line has already took a hit with their RT going down for the season in the pre-season.  Their 3rd round OL pick must step up immediately.  The D under Zimmer greatly improved in the first year and should only get better with the excellent talent taken in the 1st and 2nd round of the draft.  Like every team in this division, they face a tough schedule.  There are a few spots they can take advantage of and I think if the O is dynamic and the D stalwart the Vikes could win 10 games.  If the O line can’t protect Teddy then they might struggle to reach 8-8.  I pick mid point here too. 9-7. That will give them a very outside chance at a Wild Card but this team is looking and trending upwards for their new stadium in 2016.

Detroit Lions – The Lions were a picked up flag from being in the Divisional round of the playoffs for the first time in at least this century.  The loss of Suh is significant but my prevailing opinion is that he is about two on-field misconducts away from a season long suspension and that is a when not an if.  To task Ngata and a kid to help replace the production on the D line is not a bad option.  The Lions still have a decent D line, a solid LB corps and a growing solid secondary.  This is a D that can influence a game.  Stafford needs to continue to tighten up his passing game.  Megatron is still elite but aging gracefully.  Ebron needs a healthy sophomore season to give Stafford more options.  Golden Tate is the younger star on this receiving corps.  They have Joique Bell and draftee Ameer Abdullah to give them a great RB combo finally.  Their special teams is a problem and they need consistency from both FG and Punts and some semblance of effective play on both coverage and returns.  This could still be an issue.  The Lions are strong but their schedule is brutal.  They will be pushed almost every week up to their bye and if they can end 4-4 at the half that will be an accomplishment.  Pulling off another 4-4 post bye against a second half schedule that is also brutal will be a win for them.  If they can play lights out and Stafford can dominate with the passing game and the special teams do the job – they could win 11.  I don’t see that against this schedule so I think 8-8 is the result for a team better than that record.

Chicago Bears – The bringing in of a new regime at Head Coach and GM bodes well for a franchise that has struggled for nearly a decade.  Fox should be able to bring success to the Windy City but it doesn’t appear it will be in 2015.  The loss of 1st round pick WR Kevin White for at least the first 6 if not the whole 16 games is a big hit.  Having Jay Cutler still at QB is a millstone to success of the team.  They are switching to the 3-4 D (they drafted Goldman to play NT) and this kind of switch usually creates growing pains.  The Bears have 3 ok WR (Jeffrey is a star with health and a good QB), a durable if aging RB and a talented is prissy TE and they have 2/5 of a pro bowl line.  They get to play their own improving division and they get to play the NFC West.  Yeah.  Here is their deal.  If all goes really well they will be 7-9.  If things go badly they might be 3-13.  I think my sad sack 2015 Bears will be 4-12.

There you have it, as always I appreciate any thoughts, comments, arguments or agreements!

MR N the BEARS Fan

MR N’s #NFL AFC North Preview for 2015‏ #nflthoughts #nflnetwork

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – There is hope in Charm City as the 2015 season begins.  The Ravens nearly got past the Pats last year and they may be stronger this year.  The Ravens made creative personnel moves that in the end brought them new talent ahead of last year.  Out with WR T Smith and DL Ngata but added Perriman in the draft and already had young talent on the D line and there is no drop off there.  GM Ozzie Newsom has put together a solid lineup, Coach Harbaugh gets the most out of his team.  Flacco isn’t too far from elite and he can get it done.  They have stumbled upon a decent RB.  Their O line is terrific.  The Receiving corps is strong.  The Front 7 of the D is superb.  Mosely is a generational talent at MLB.  Their Corners are strong.  The only slight weakness is a lack of productivity at safety but they just need to be ok to keep up their end.  The schedule is brutal but this team can give as good as it gets.  If all goes well they are 11-5.  I think they can’t be less than 10-6 so I will say 10-6.  This will win the division. This team could be playing in Super Bowl 50.

Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have likely the best offense in the NFL and they are going to need it.  Even missing LeVeon Bell for 3 games won’t kill the scoring.  They have a much younger D now and it’s under a new Co-ordinator.  If the youth can get their legs under them quick and the secondary can turn youth and speed into passes defended and picks then this team will be tough.  I think that is asking too much.  Add to that a schedule only Hell could devise and it’s a recipe for disaster.  If the Steelers are totally on point and win even tough early games like on the road in SD then they could be 6-4 going into their bye.  The post bye sked is horrific and if they are miraculous they might go 2-4 and finish 8-8.  They are likely 1-5 off the bye and that means 7-9.  The Steelers high water mark has to be 10-6 and their low is likely 6-10.  I think 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are one of only a few teams that have made the playoffs 4 years in a row.  They are also the only team to go one and done four years in a row.  This streak will end in 2015. They won’t make the playoffs!  Andy Dalton is not much of an excuse for a franchise QB.  They have a super star WR who is a touch injury prone, 2 good RB and they may have a TE who is healthy this year.  The O line is decent.  The D lost it’s mojo when Their DC Zimmer became Minnesota’s coach and they are not the same any more.  Doesn’t really matter who is playing there.  They have a tough schedule too but they are not the team Baltimore is.  I think if they somehow play some D and Dalton makes a throw or two they could win 9 games.  They could blow up and win 6.  I say 7-9 and 2016 brings a new QB and a new HC.

Cleveland Browns – The Browns are a team building something decent after years (and YEARS) of spinning their wheels in no direction.  They still need to find certainty at QB.  Josh McCown is aged but *BUT* could provide steadiness.  John Manziel seems to have found maturity and brought himself to a new place.  It is early days but he resembles the Texas A&M force on the field. He could yet be an NFL QB.  The Browns have 2 good RB, a bunch of competent WR and TE (perennial bad boy Gordon is done for the year and likely as a Brown). The O line is superb. Note that left tackle Joe Thomas has never missed A SNAP in 8 seasons.  That is remarkable!  The D is stronger with the addition of Danny Shelton and adding Williams at CB.  The problem is that Satan devised their schedule.  If the QB play gels the Browns could win a hard fought 9.  I don’t see that.  I see them win their first 3 games, get their city excited.  They then lose the next 7 to their bye and likely their coach is fired *not his fault, he didn’t make the schedule*. Then post bye they go 3-3 and and a hard luck 6-10.  They are a better team than that record but that schedule is a killer.

There you have it, as always I enjoy thoughts, comments, arguments or agreements!

MR N’s #NFL AFC East Preview ‏ 2015 #nflnetwork #nflthoughts

afc east

1. New England Patriots – The Pats have been in the news since they won the Super Bowl and it hasn’t been for a good reason. I believe everyone is now tired of the discussion of how inflated a football is supposed to be. If Goodell’s vendetta is allowed then NE will be without Brady for the first 4 games. That is a caveat to keep in mind that could make the Pats 1-2 before their bye (probably 2-1 with Brady) The Pats have an uncertain value with Garoppolo as the backup so that is an open question. They have solid C and Tackles (some issues at guard), They have Gronk, 2 decent WR and a mix of talent at RB. They have great Linebackers, an issue or two at the Line and lots of questions in the secondary. They still will score a ton and win a lot guaranteed in the last 12 games. If they get on a roll they could win 13 but if the 4 game ban is intact then they might struggle to win 10. I will say 11-5 and they win their division but don’t expect a Superbowl 50 run.

2. Buffalo Bills – The Bills have the longest streak of not making the post season and that could finally end in 2015. If Buffalo had a modicum of QB ability they could go deep into the playoffs. They have a bombastic new Head Coach in Sexy Rexy Ryan, they have LaSean McCoy at RB, Watkins and Woods at WR and Clay at TE. They even have an aged Percy Harvin to be a help around the edges. The QB mess is defined when you see that Matt Cassel is the best option they have. Yeah. Their O line is not a strength and needs to step up. Their D is beyond amazing. They have a front 4 that can dominate and get to the QB which means the Bills can use 7 in coverage every down. They have a great pass rush, a super rush D and young solid CBs. Good special teams too. The Bills schedule is one that has potential for success. If the Bills QB situation gels and they get a basic positive production there then this team could be 12-4. If the offense drags the team down then the D alone can make them 9-7. I think they win one of the AFC wild cards and finish 11-5.

3. Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins made two big offseason additions. Brought in Former Jet front office guru Tannenbaum (look at how good he did with the Jets?????????) and Suh, the goon. The Dolphin D had one strength – the D line and now Suh makes the front line better. Alas their linebackers are poor and their secondary is questionable too. Their kicking game for both FG and punts is not great. They have a good young QB, they drafted a decent WR and have Jarvis Landry. Their running game is based on a guy who has never had more than 19 carries in a game. Their schedule is a tough one. I see this team not making the playoffs and that should be the end for the GM and Coach. I think if the team’s offense struggles and the D doesn’t stop the pass they could be 5-11. If all breaks well for them then they could win 8 games. I think mid ground is more likely and I see them a poor 6-10.

4. New York Jets – The Jets had a lot of hope with the newly developed D and landing Brandon Marshall and a new Head Coach and GM and I don’t know what else. Then the preseason happened. Sheldon Richardson did everything he could have done to be suspended for a year (speeding 143 in a 55, turn out lights to avoid police, have a 12 year old in the back seat and have a loaded gun under the seat ((and the smell of marijuana)). He could have only done worse had he kidnapped the 12 year old. Then Geno got punched in the face and let the hijinx begin. They have no QB to speak of, their running game is nothing special, their WR is nothing special (especially with that kind of QB tossing to them) but their line is still strong. The D is lacking a vet on the line but they added much needed help to what was the worst secondary ever in the history of the NFL. This team will have a super year if they go 6-10. They could suffer a 2-14. I think they will stumble and fall apart until they end 3-13.

As always thoughts, arguments or agreements are appreciated!

MR N the BEARS Fan